Teams playing at neutral venues in AFCON Qualifiers have just a 22% win rate, could Ghana be next?
With CAF pulling the plug on Ghana’s home stadium, the Black Stars may be forced to play at a neutral venue and the stats show it could spell trouble
Ghana’s senior national men’s football team, the Black Stars remain uncertain about the venue for their upcoming 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) qualifier against Sudan, scheduled for Friday (11 October).
This follows the Confederation of African Football (CAF) revoking the approval of the Baba Yara Sports Stadium after Ghana’s match against Angola on Thursday (5 September).
The withdrawal was due to several technical violations, including an inappropriate playing surface.
With no other CAF-approved Category 3 stadiums currently available in Ghana, the Ghana Football Association (GFA) has been instructed to select an alternative venue from among those approved by CAF outside the country.
This leaves the Black Stars joining 18 other African nations who have so far been forced to play at neutral venues during the ongoing AFCON qualifiers as CAF tightens its stance on substandard facilities.
A growing trend of neutral venues
Ghana is not alone in this dilemma. Several African nations have had to play their AFCON home qualifiers in neutral territories for various reasons.
Morocco has emerged as a popular location, hosting five of the 18 nations affected: Comoros, The Gambia, the Central African Republic, Lesotho, and Niger.
The Ben M’Hamed El Abdi Stadium in Morocco, with a capacity of 15,000, hosted three teams, while the 45,000-seat Adrar Stadium saw action from Lesotho. Niger played at the 10,000-capacity Berkane Municipal Stadium.
Côte d’Ivoire also hosted two nations, with Benin playing at the 45,000-capacity Stade Félix Houphouët Boigny and Guinea choosing the 20,000-capacity Charles Konan Banny Stadium.
Meanwhile, Namibia and Eswatini opted to play in South Africa, using Orlando Stadium and Mbombela Stadium, respectively.
Neutral venues impact on performance
The data so far paints a bleak picture for teams forced to play at neutral venues. Of the 18 home games played at neutral sites, only four teams—Central African Republic, Benin, Sudan, and Burkina Faso—secured wins.
This gives a win rate of just 22.2% for home teams in these circumstances.
Moreover, 44.4% of these matches resulted in defeat for the “home” teams, with The Gambia, Lesotho, Chad, Ethiopia, Guinea, Eswatini, Namibia, and Burundi all losing their fixtures.
This trend emphasises the importance of home advantage and fan support. Three of the four teams that won while playing away from home had the benefit of venues close enough for their fans to attend, with an average distance of just 736.7 km from their home nations.
Conversely, six of the eight teams that suffered defeats were forced to play much further away, with an average distance of 3,585 km from home, severely limiting fan attendance.
What could this mean for Ghana?
The GFA and National Sports Authority (NSA) are working tirelessly to secure approval for either the Accra Sports Stadium or the Cape Coast Stadium ahead of the crucial Sudan clash.
Playing at home is always preferable, but if CAF approval isn’t granted, the GFA must carefully consider its choice of neutral venue.
Opting for a location that allows Ghanaian fans to travel and support the Black Stars could make all the difference.
The statistics from other neutral venue games suggest that the Black Stars may face an uphill battle if they are forced to play outside Ghana.
However, with smart venue selection and the backing of passionate fans, Ghana can still look to secure a win on their road to the 2025 AFCON in Morocco.
As the qualifiers progress, one thing is clear: neutral venues rarely offer a true advantage for the designated home team, and for Ghana, every detail will count as they push for qualification.
Asaase Broadcasting Company airs on Asaase 99.5 Accra, Asaase 98.5 Kumasi, Asaase 99.7 Tamale, Asaase 100.3 Cape Coast, AsaasePa 107.3 (Accra).
Affiliates: Bawku FM 101.5, Bead FM 99.9 (Bimbilla), Mining City Radio 89.5 (Tarkwa), Nandom FM 101.9, Nyatefe Radio 94.5 (Dzodze), Sissala Radio 96.3 (Tumu), Somuaa FM 89.9 (Gushegu), Stone City 90.7 (Ho) and Wale FM 106.9 (Walewale).
Listen online: asaaseradio.com, Sound Garden and TuneIn.
Follow us:
X: @asaaseradio995, @Asaase985ksi, @Asaase997tamale, @asaase1003, asaasepa1073
Instagram: asaaseradio99.5, asaase985ksi, asaase100.3, asaase99.7tamale, asaasepa107.3
LinkedIn: company/asaaseradio995. TikTok: @asaaseradio99.5
Facebook: asaase99.5, asaase985ksi, Asaase100.3, asaase99.7, AsaasePa107.3.
YouTube: AsaaseRadioXtra.
Join the conversation. Accra: call 020 000 9951/054 888 8995, WhatsApp 020 000 0995. Kumasi: call 059 415 7985 or call/WhatsApp 020 631 5260. Tamale: call/WhatsApp/SMS 053 554 6468. Cape Coast: call/WhatsApp 059 388 2652.
#AsaaseRadio
#AsaasePa
#TheVoiceofOurLand
