The World Bank has revised Ghana’s growth downward to 1.4% in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The development may come as a surprise to analysts, as the Bank had projected growth of 3.4% for Ghana.
The report said: “In Ghana, the [Africa] region’s fourth-largest economy, the expected resilience in agriculture will not be sufficient to offset the pandemic’s lingering adverse impact on oil and other sectors. As a result, the growth forecast for 2021-22 has been downgraded to 1.9%.
“The projected rebound is expected to be more sluggish among industrial commodity exporters. Excluding Nigeria and South Africa, growth in these economies is forecast to average 2.8% in 2021-22, following 3.4% contraction last year.
“Although metal prices recovered somewhat in the second half of 2020, oil prices remain well below 2019 levels, weighing on the pace of recovery in oil-exporting economies (Angola, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana),” the report said.
| TABLE 2.6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts1 | Percentage point | |||||||
| (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise) | differences from | |||||||
| June 2020 projections | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020e | 2021f | 2022f | 2020e | 2021f | ||
| Angola | -2.0 | -0.9 | -4.0 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | -2.2 | |
| Benin | 6.7 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | -1.2 | -1.0 | |
| Botswana | 4.5 | 3.0 | -9.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | |
| Burkina Faso | 6.8 | 5.7 | -2.0 | 2.4 | 4.7 | -4.0 | -3.4 | |
| Burundi | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.7 | -0.3 | |
| Central African Republic | 3.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |
| Cabo Verde | 4.5 | 5.7 | -11.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | 0.5 | |
| Cameroon | 4.1 | 3.7 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| Chad | 2.4 | 3.2 | -0.8 | 2.4 | 3.3 | -0.6 | -2.3 | |
| Comoros | 3.4 | 1.9 | -1.4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | -0.8 | |
| Congo, Dem. Rep. | 5.8 | 4.4 | -1.7 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 0.5 | -1.4 | |
| Congo, Rep. | -6.2 | -3.5 | -8.9 | -2.0 | 1.3 | -2.7 | -0.9 | |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 6.8 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 5.8 | -0.9 | -3.2 | |
| Equatorial Guinea | -6.4 | -5.6 | -9.0 | -2.8 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -1.2 | |
| Eritrea | 13.0 | 3.7 | -0.6 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 0.1 | -2.2 | |
| Eswatini | 2.4 | 1.3 | -3.5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | -0.7 | -1.2 | |
| Ethiopia2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | -3.6 | |
| Gabon | 0.8 | 3.9 | -2.4 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 4.5 | |
| Gambia | 6.5 | 6.0 | -1.8 | 3.1 | 5.3 | -4.3 | -3.4 | |
| Ghana | 6.3 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.4 | -0.4 | -2.0 | |
| Guinea | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | -2.4 | |
| Guinea-Bissau | 3.8 | 4.6 | -2.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| Kenya | 6.3 | 5.4 | -1.0 | 6.9 | 5.7 | -2.5 | 1.7 | |
| Lesotho | 1.5 | 1.4 | -5.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | -0.2 | -2.4 | |
| Liberia | 1.2 | -2.3 | -2.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | -0.3 | -0.8 | |
| Madagascar | 4.6 | 4.8 | -4.2 | 2.0 | 5.8 | -3.0 | -2.0 | |
| Malawi | 3.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | -0.7 | -0.2 | |
| Mali | 4.7 | 5.0 | -2.0 | 2.5 | 5.2 | -2.9 | -1.5 | |
| Mauritania | 2.1 | 5.9 | -0.6 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | -0.5 | |
| Mauritius | 3.8 | 3.0 | -12.9 | 5.3 | 6.8 | -6.1 | -1.1 | |
| Mozambique | 3.4 | 2.2 | -0.8 | 2.8 | 4.4 | -2.1 | -0.8 | |
| Namibia | 0.7 | -1.1 | -7.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -3.1 | -0.8 | |
| Niger | 7.0 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 0.0 | -3.0 | |
| Nigeria | 1.9 | 2.2 | -4.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.9 | -0.6 | |
| Rwanda | 8.6 | 9.4 | -0.2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | -2.2 | -1.2 | |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.9 | 1.3 | -6.5 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | -3.1 | |
| Senegal | 6.4 | 5.3 | -0.7 | 3.5 | 5.6 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |
| Seychelles | 4.1 | 2.0 | -15.9 | 3.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 | -3.2 | |
| Sierra Leone | 3.4 | 5.5 | -2.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
| South Africa | 0.8 | 0.2 | -7.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 0.4 | |
| Sudan | -2.3 | -2.5 | -8.4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -4.4 | 2.0 | |
| South Sudan2 | -3.5 | -0.3 | 9.3 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 13.6 | 20.2 | |
| Tanzania | 5.4 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Togo | 4.9 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.0 | -1.0 | |
| Uganda2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 5.9 | -0.4 | -0.9 | |
| Zambia | 3.5 | 1.4 | -4.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 | -3.7 | -0.5 | |
| Zimbabwe | 4.8 | -8.1 | -10.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Source: World Bank
Global economy to expand
Meanwhile, the World Bank is forecasting that the global economy will rebound by 4% in 2021.
“The global economy is expected to expand 4% in 2021, assuming an initial COVID-19 vaccine rollout becomes widespread throughout the year. A recovery, however, will likely be subdued, unless policymakers move decisively to tame the pandemic and implement investment-enhancing reforms.”
The World Bank wants countries to focus on improving business environments and increasing their labour and product markets, so as to counter the pandemic, which affected the global economy severely.
The president of the World Bank Group, David Malpass, said: “While the global economy appears to have entered a subdued recovery, policymakers face formidable challenges — in public health, debt management, budget policies, central banking and structural reforms — as they try to ensure that this still fragile global recovery gains traction and sets a foundation for robust growth.”
Fred Dzakpata
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