S&P Global Ratings lowered its 2023 growth forecast for emerging economies on Tuesday, citing persistent pressures from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a lingering COVID-19 pandemic and tight monetary policy conditions.
The ratings agency now projects real gross domestic product growth of 3.8% next year, down from its previous forecast of a 4.1% expansion.
“The downward revision to growth comes from all EMs (emerging markets) excluding China and Saudi Arabia, with most economies poised to expand below their longer-run trend rates,” it said, adding that forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain broadly unchanged, averaging at 4.3%.
While inflation in emerging markets have passed the peak or are peaking soon on the back of declining food and fuel inflation, it is still poised to remain above central banks’ targets in many economies, forcing monetary policies to stay restrictive, the agency warned.
“But the deceleration in inflation–coupled with a worsening growth outlook–could bring policy easing onto the agenda in several EMs, especially in Latin America, by the middle of next year,” S&P said.
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